近期铁矿石价格波动是由坚实的阶段性基本面支持的。从供应端来看，2018年四大矿山增产周期基本结束，2019年四大矿山又分别遭遇了较严重的不可抗力，导致产量锐减，尤其是淡水河谷，生产迟迟无法有效恢复，铁矿石市场供应一直维持偏紧状态。从需求端来看，2018年年末全国限产措施开始放松，钢厂对铁矿石的需求高速增长，2019年我国生铁产量同比增幅达到5.30%，且这种势头持续至今。铁矿石市场供减需增，库存不断被消化，最新一期的港口库存为1.19亿吨，而2019年年初为1.43亿吨。The recent fluctuation of iron ore price is supported by solid stage fundamentals. From the perspective of the supply side, the production increase cycle of the four mines in 2018 is basically over, and in 2019, the four mines respectively encounter more serious force majeure, resulting in a sharp decrease in production, especially in vale, production cannot be effectively recovered, and the supply of iron ore market has been in a tight state. From the demand side, at the end of 2018, the national production restriction measures began to relax, and the demand for iron ore by steel mills increased rapidly. In 2019, the pig iron production in China increased by 5.30% year-on-year, and this trend continues to this day. The supply, demand and supply of iron ore market are increasing, and the inventory is continuously digested. The port inventory in the latest phase is 119 million tons, compared with 143 million tons at the beginning of 2019.