铁矿石价格是否虚高，取决于观察视角。从海外市场或者其他商品价格普跌的情况看，铁矿石价格确实比较坚挺。但从自身基本面看，铁矿石价格仍处于合理范围。其一，PB粉、金布巴粉现货价格相对年前已经下跌10—20元/湿吨，期货依旧贴水现货。其二，相对于年前的供需格局，年后供应端的收缩比需求端的收缩更为严重，铁矿石一直处于反季节去库存通道，无论港口还是工厂，库存均降至历史低位。供需紧平衡的状态下，很难说铁矿石价格走势脱离了基本面。“期货价格向上修复的过程中，并未造成吨钢利润下降，利润反而进一步扩张。根据测算，螺纹钢(3437, -67.00, -1.91%)20日生产毛利由年后的低点50元/吨增加到250元/吨，螺纹钢2005合约盘面利润由100元/吨增加到250元/吨。”Whether iron ore prices are artificially high depends on the perspective of observation. Judging from the general decline of overseas market or other commodity prices, iron ore prices are indeed relatively strong. But from its own fundamentals, iron ore price is still in a reasonable range. First, the spot prices of Pb powder and jinbuba powder have fallen by 10-20 yuan / wet ton compared with that before the year, and the futures are still in good condition. Second, compared with the supply and demand pattern before, the contraction at the supply end is more serious than that at the demand end after the year. Iron ore has been in the off-season de stocking channel, and the inventory of both ports and factories has dropped to a historical low. Under the condition of tight balance between supply and demand, it is difficult to say that the price trend of iron ore has deviated from the fundamentals. "In the process of upward recovery of futures price, the profit per ton of steel did not decrease, but further expanded. According to the calculation, the 20 day gross profit of screw steel (3437, - 67.00, - 1.91%) increased from the low point of 50 yuan / ton after the year to 250 yuan / ton, and the plate profit of screw steel 2005 contract increased from 100 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton. "